President Obama thinks so. So does Leonardo DiCaprio. And many others. The argument goes like this: Regular cars run on gasoline, a fossil fuel
that pumps CO2 straight out of the tailpipe and into the atmosphere.
Electric cars run
on electricity. They dont burn any gasoline at all. No gas; no CO2. In fact, electric
cars are often advertised as creating zero emissions.
But do they really? Lets
take a closer look. First, theres the energy needed to produce
the car. More than a third of the lifetime carbon-dioxide emissions from an electric
car comes from the energy used make the car itself, especially the battery. The mining
of lithium, for instance, is not a green activity.
When an electric car rolls off the production
line, its already been responsible for more than 25,000 pounds of carbon-dioxide
emission. The amount for making a conventional car: just 16,000 pounds. But thats not the end of the CO2 emissions.
Because while its true that electric cars dont run on gasoline, they do run on electricity,
which, in the US is often produced by another fossil fuel -- coal. As green venture capitalist
Vinod Khosla likes to point out, "Electric cars are coal-powered cars." The most popular electric car, the Nissan
Leaf, over a 90,000-mile lifetime will emit 31 metric tons of CO2, based on emissions
from its production, its electricity consumption at average U.S.
Fuel mix and its ultimate
scrapping. A comparable Mercedes CDI A160 over a similar
lifetime will emit just 3 tons more across its production, diesel consumption and ultimate
scrapping. The results are similar for a top-line Tesla, the king of electric cars. It emits
about 44 tons, which is only 5 tons less than a similar Audi A7 Quattro.
So throughout the full life of an electric
car, it will emit just three to five tons less CO2. In Europe, on its European Trading
System, it currently costs $7 to cut one ton of CO2. So the entire climate benefit of an
electric car is about $35. Yet the U.S.
Federal government essentially provides electric car
buyers with a subsidy of up to $7,500. Paying $7,500 for something you could get
for $35 is a very poor deal. And that doesnt include the billions more in federal and state
grants, loans and tax write-offs that go directly to battery and electric-car makers. The other main benefit from electric cars
is supposed to be lower pollution.
But remember Vinod Khoslas observation "Electric cars
are coal-powered cars." Yes, it might be powered by coal, proponents
will say, but unlike the regular car, coal plant emissions are far away from the city
centers where most people live and where damage from air pollution is greatest. However, new
research in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that while gasoline cars
pollute closer to home, coal-fired power actually pollutes more -- a lot more. How much more? Well, the researchers estimate that if the
U.S. Has 10% more gasoline cars in 2020, 870 more people will die each year from the additional
air pollution.
If the U.S. Has 10% more electric vehicles powered on the average U.S. Electricity
mix, 1,617 more people will die every year from the extra pollution. Twice as many.
But of course electricity from renewables
like solar and wind creates energy for electric cars without CO2. Wont the perceived rapid
ramp-up of these renewables make future electric cars much cleaner? Unfortunately, this is
mostly wishful thinking. Today, the U.S. Gets 14% of its electric power from renewables.
In 25 years, Obamas Energy Information Administration estimates that number will
have gone up just 3 percentage points to 17%.
Meanwhile, those fossil fuels that generate
65% of U.S. Electricity today will still generate about 64% of it in 2040. While electric-car owners may cruise around
feeling virtuous, the reality is that the electric car cuts almost no CO2, costs taxpayers
a fortune, and, surprisingly, generates more air pollution than traditional gasoline cars. Im Bjrn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen
Consensus Center..
